Imagine this: You think a specific presidential candidate will win the next election or that there will be a hit song from your favourite artist with up to a billion streams, so you get paid for that belief. That’s exactly what Prediction Markets let you do. They’re like sports betting and stock exchange sites, but they allow you to bet on almost anything.

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What are Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are platforms where anyone can buy and sell shares in the outcome of an event. Each share represents a belief in a specific result, and it’s usually in the form of a token on the blockchain. For example, do you think Sui will be $50 by next year?
  • If you think yes, you buy “Yes” shares.
  • If you think no, you buy “No” shares.
Each share is priced based on probability. A “Yes” share at 0.30meansthemarketthinksthere’sa300.30 means the market thinks there’s a 30% chance that the outcome will happen. If it does happen, "Yes" pays out **1**. If not, it’s worth $0. So if you buy “Yes” at 0.30andtheeventcomestrue,congratulations,youjustturned0.30 and the event comes true, congratulations, you just turned 0.30 into $1.

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How Prediction Markets Work

Prediction markets might sound unreal. You might be asking questions like how do these apps know the truth? Well, here’s what’s happening beneath the hood.
  1. The first step is creating the question (prediction market). Anyone could set up a straightforward, verifiable question like: “Will Sui hit $50 by Jan 1, 2026?”
  2. To get the market going, someone funds the pool with tokens, usually a stablecoin like USDC. This allows others to start buying shares on either side of the outcome.
  3. People buy shares based on their expectations. The more people buy “Yes” shares, the more expensive they become because demand equals price. The same goes for “No.”
  4. If a “Yes” share is worth $0.65, the market is saying there’s a 65% chance it will happen. It’s crowd-sourced forecasting powered by money.
  5. Once the event ends, a trusted oracle (a data source like Chainlink or Pyth) reports what happened.
  6. If you were right, your winning shares are now redeemable for 1each∗∗.Ifyouwerewrong,yoursharesarenowworth∗∗1 each**. If you were wrong, your shares are now worth **0.
That’s the risk. But it’s also the fun. You can trade on anything from elections to sports, memes, weather, e.t.c. If there’s a yes or no to a situation, it can be a prediction market.
Overall Prediction markets are a great way to walk your talk and put your money where your mouth is.